Greenspan's Bogus Defense - Robert P. Murphy - Mises Institute

Greenspan's Bogus Defense - Robert P. Murphy - Mises Institute: "Since the participants in the mortgage market wisely realized that rates wouldn't be held at 1% forever, they didn't foolishly drop their own yields down so far. Then in June 2004, when Greenspan began ratcheting the federal-funds rate back up, it is perfectly understandable that mortgage rates wouldn't rise with them.

To repeat, Greenspan's defense of his policies made it sound as if he tried to push up mortgage rates, but that they wouldn't budge. Yet, as the chart above makes clear, Greenspan didn't really push up very hard on rates."

"Greenspan repeats the claim that Asian savings were the real culprit. But there are two problems with this theory: first, global savings rates continued to rise throughout the housing boom and bust. So it's very difficult to explain the peak of the housing boom with reference to Asian saving. (In contrast, Greenspan's actions with short-term rates fit the fortunes of the housing market much more closely.)

But a second major problem is that even on its own terms, the influx of blind Asian saving — to the extent it existed at all — was itself partially a product of Greenspan's monetary inflation. Remember that the Chinese central bank had maintained a rigid peg to the dollar until it was pressured to drop it — right around the time the housing boom faltered.

To put it somewhat simplistically, when Greenspan flooded the world with more dollars, the dollar fell sharply against most major currencies. But in order for the Chinese to keep the renminbi (yuan) from appreciating against the dollar as well, they had to load up on dollar-denominated assets, such as US Treasuries. Thus, Greenspan's inflation in combination with the Chinese peg, on paper might have appeared as an irrational influx of Asian investment, which stubbornly refused to subside even as US indebtedness grew."