Monday, June 20, 2011

Truth about Trade Deficits and Jobs | Daniel Griswold | Cato Institute: Commentary

Truth about Trade Deficits and Jobs | Daniel Griswold | Cato Institute: Commentary: "A trade deficit doesn't mean those dollars flowing abroad just disappear. They quickly return to the United States. If they are not used to buy our goods and services to export, they are used to buy American assets — Treasury bills, corporate stock and bonds, real estate and bank deposits.

In this way, America's trade deficit is always and almost exactly offset by a foreign investment surplus. The net surplus of foreign investment into the U.S. each year keeps long-term interest rates down, prevents the crowding out of private investment by government borrowing and promotes job creation through direct investment in U.S. factories and businesses."

"Since 1980, real U.S. GDP has grown at an annualized rate of 3.6 percent during those periods of rising trade deficits, compared to a sluggish 1.0 percent during periods of shrinking deficits. So much for trade deficits being a drag on growth."

"Despite worries about the U.S. industrial base, manufacturing output during periods of expanding trade deficits rose a healthy 5.2 percent per year. During periods of declining (i.e. 'improving') trade deficits, manufacturing output contracted at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent."

"during periods of rising trade deficits, employment has grown at an annualized average of 1.4 percent, compared to zero growth on average during periods of declining deficits. The unemployment rate dropped by an average of 0.4 percentage points a year during periods of rising deficits, compared to a painful 1.0 point per year when the deficit was declining"

The Real Budget Problem | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary

The Real Budget Problem | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary: "In fact, the Congressional Budget Office predicts that as economic growth returns, federal tax revenues will grow by an average of 7.3 percent annually over the next ten years. By the end of the decade, taxes will have pushed back through the 18 percent level, and be headed toward 20 percent — all without any changes in tax policy."

"the real cost of government is the size of government. According to the CBO, the federal government is on track to consume 42 percent of GDP by 2050. (State and local governments will consume another 10 to 15 percent of GDP.)"

Targeting the World's Worst Religious Persecutors | Doug Bandow | Cato Institute: Commentary

Targeting the World's Worst Religious Persecutors | Doug Bandow | Cato Institute: Commentary: "Although there is great variety among persecuting states, two characteristics stand out: Islamic national or regional majorities and Communist or former Communist ideologies. Of the 25 nations singled out as the worst abusers by the Commission, 11 are majority Muslim and 10 are Communist/former Communist."