Are We Overreacting to the Threat of a Nuclear Iran? | Justin Logan | Cato Institute: "dictatorial regime regularly lashes out with hysterical war propaganda and threatens to rain destruction on its neighbors. It regularly inveighs against American imperialism, and in return, American analysts regularly discuss preventive strikes against the country.
Then, with little warning, it conducts a nuclear test. Americans from all walks of life remember that day vividly. Their lives—indeed, the world—changed forever.
It was May 25, 2009. Don’t you remember?
That, of course, was the day the erratic, bizarre government in North Korea managed to successfully test a nuclear device. But the world didn’t end."
" My colleague John Mueller and Frank Gavin both catalog the embarrassing track record of false positives in predicting tipping points, cascades, chains, waves, avalanches, et cetera. Their bibliographies are full of embarrassingly wrong predictions—full enough that people ought to be chastened and reconsider just throwing around similar assertions as though they are obviously true."
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