Six Reasons Why the Wars We Wage Often Go Wrong | Jim Powell | Cato Institute: Commentary: 'war is the most costly, violent and unpredictable thing governments do. Again and again, even decisive victories can turn out to be serious mistakes, if not catastrophes, because of unintended consequences. While we might be able to control what we do, we cannot control how other people react to what we do.
Here are 6 reasons why wars go wrong:
1. Nations at war often try to avenge their suffering, which means they are likely to inflame hatreds that persist for a long time and provoke more wars.'
'2. The overwhelming stresses of war can trigger economic chaos, political crises and totalitarian regimes.'
'3. If allies have conflicting aims, a war is likely to have conflicting outcomes.'
'4. A vulnerable adversary can become unbeatable if it unexpectedly gains a big ally.'
'5. Major powers can be thwarted by people who are fighting for their homeland, know their territory well and have nowhere else to go.'
'6. People don’t want somebody else building their nation, even when they’re making a mess of it — especially during a civil war.'
Saturday, February 04, 2012
Friday, February 03, 2012
Misrepresenting Inequality - Gary Galles - Mises Daily
Misrepresenting Inequality - Gary Galles - Mises Daily: 'Several huge sources of wealth are omitted from the financial measures used by those fixated on inequality. These include pension-fund assets, which largely represent the retirement funds of the nonrich; Social Security wealth (the present value of benefits qualified for but not yet received); and human capital — the knowledge, energy, and abilities embodied in working people but not yet turned into financial wealth. These represent trillions of dollars of wealth, spread far more evenly through the population than financial-wealth measures imply. The same is true of our tremendous wealth in the form of consumer durable goods, from cars to refrigerators to computers. Such omissions guarantee misunderstanding.
Wealth-inequality complaints, in their rush to justify more government redistribution, also ignore many important determinants of financial-wealth differences. A key one is demographics. Disparities in measured wealth in large part reflect age differences in the population.'
'in-kind welfare programs go uncounted in the official data, so that they do not improve the measured situations of the poor. This is a very large error. Of the over $500 billion given annually in government means-tested assistance (not including another quarter trillion or so dollars Medicare spends on the elderly), roughly three-quarters is now given in kind.
The official data further omits taxes, disguising the disproportionate burdens borne by higher-income families. It also hides the impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit. Even though the EITC is refundable, putting dollars directly into recipients' pockets, it is ignored as a "negative tax," making its $40 billion plus in annual transfers to lower-income families disappear from view.
Income studies also fail to incorporate nonsalary benefits and payments to workers, which have increased most among those not at the top of income measures. Mark Warshawsky of the Social Security Advisory Board found that recent expansions in measured earnings inequality were almost completely attributable to rising benefits costs.'
'dramatically smaller inequalities in measures of consumption — far better indicators of well-being — than of current income'
'Many people have shifted from filing as businesses under the corporate tax to filing as individuals as a result of decreasing individual tax rates, dramatically exaggerating increases in their incomes. Top managers have also moved from receiving income as stock options taxed as capital gains to nonqualified stock options, making them countable as taxable personal income.'
Wealth-inequality complaints, in their rush to justify more government redistribution, also ignore many important determinants of financial-wealth differences. A key one is demographics. Disparities in measured wealth in large part reflect age differences in the population.'
'in-kind welfare programs go uncounted in the official data, so that they do not improve the measured situations of the poor. This is a very large error. Of the over $500 billion given annually in government means-tested assistance (not including another quarter trillion or so dollars Medicare spends on the elderly), roughly three-quarters is now given in kind.
The official data further omits taxes, disguising the disproportionate burdens borne by higher-income families. It also hides the impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit. Even though the EITC is refundable, putting dollars directly into recipients' pockets, it is ignored as a "negative tax," making its $40 billion plus in annual transfers to lower-income families disappear from view.
Income studies also fail to incorporate nonsalary benefits and payments to workers, which have increased most among those not at the top of income measures. Mark Warshawsky of the Social Security Advisory Board found that recent expansions in measured earnings inequality were almost completely attributable to rising benefits costs.'
'dramatically smaller inequalities in measures of consumption — far better indicators of well-being — than of current income'
'Many people have shifted from filing as businesses under the corporate tax to filing as individuals as a result of decreasing individual tax rates, dramatically exaggerating increases in their incomes. Top managers have also moved from receiving income as stock options taxed as capital gains to nonqualified stock options, making them countable as taxable personal income.'
Thursday, February 02, 2012
No More Bipartisan Bailouts | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary
No More Bipartisan Bailouts | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary: 'big business and big government are all too happy to work hand in hand to thwart the free market.Confusing support for free markets with support for the corporate agenda is a bipartisan failing. In a free market, for example, corporations compete against one another on their merits. Government doesn’t pick winners and losers or prefer one type of industry over another.
Yet, Rick Santorum shares President Obama’s desire for special tax breaks for “manufacturing.” Both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney join President Obama in backing government subsidies for ethanol and other alternative energy.
And obviously, in a free market, when businesses fail because they made stupid investment decisions, they go bankrupt. But both Romney and Gingrich joined President Obama (and President Bush) in supporting TARP and the bailout of some of America’s biggest banks and investment firms.'
'The Cato Institute estimates that corporate welfare now tops $125 billion per year. Among the biggest beneficiaries are companies such as Boeing, Xerox, IBM, Motorola, Dow Chemical, and General Electric. At a time when we are facing a $15.3 trillion national debt and borrowing 34 cents out of every dollar we spend, should we really be spending money to subsidize McDonald’s advertisements for Chicken McNuggets overseas?'
'Big Pharma poured more than $150 million into advertising in favor of Obamacare. Why? Among other things, every insurance plan in America will now be required to cover pharmaceutical products. And, closing the Medicare Part D “donut hole” will encourage seniors to buy brand-name drugs rather than cheaper generics. Speaking of the Medicare prescription-drug program, guess who was the biggest lobby in favor of the entitlement expansion? The drug companies even funneled millions of dollars to Newt Gingrich’s Center for Health Transformation. No surprise, then, that Gingrich supported the Medicare expansion, calling it a cost-saving idea, even though it added $17 trillion to the Medicare’s unfunded obligations. Among the biggest supporters of Obamacare’s individual insurance mandate are the big insurance companies. After all, isn’t it great for the government to force people to buy your product?'
'General Electric is among the biggest supporters of President Obama’s “cap and trade” proposals. GE is not doing this out of some sense of altruistic global citizenship, but because it operates a unit that would trade cap-and-trade credits. The company stands to reap billions in profits were Obama’s plan to pass.'
'Walmart stunned many by coming out in support of an employer health mandate. But it’s really not that surprising. Walmart actually spends more on employee health care than its competitor Target. Mandating that all companies provide health insurance will drive up Target’s costs, benefiting Walmart.'
Yet, Rick Santorum shares President Obama’s desire for special tax breaks for “manufacturing.” Both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney join President Obama in backing government subsidies for ethanol and other alternative energy.
And obviously, in a free market, when businesses fail because they made stupid investment decisions, they go bankrupt. But both Romney and Gingrich joined President Obama (and President Bush) in supporting TARP and the bailout of some of America’s biggest banks and investment firms.'
'The Cato Institute estimates that corporate welfare now tops $125 billion per year. Among the biggest beneficiaries are companies such as Boeing, Xerox, IBM, Motorola, Dow Chemical, and General Electric. At a time when we are facing a $15.3 trillion national debt and borrowing 34 cents out of every dollar we spend, should we really be spending money to subsidize McDonald’s advertisements for Chicken McNuggets overseas?'
'Big Pharma poured more than $150 million into advertising in favor of Obamacare. Why? Among other things, every insurance plan in America will now be required to cover pharmaceutical products. And, closing the Medicare Part D “donut hole” will encourage seniors to buy brand-name drugs rather than cheaper generics. Speaking of the Medicare prescription-drug program, guess who was the biggest lobby in favor of the entitlement expansion? The drug companies even funneled millions of dollars to Newt Gingrich’s Center for Health Transformation. No surprise, then, that Gingrich supported the Medicare expansion, calling it a cost-saving idea, even though it added $17 trillion to the Medicare’s unfunded obligations. Among the biggest supporters of Obamacare’s individual insurance mandate are the big insurance companies. After all, isn’t it great for the government to force people to buy your product?'
'General Electric is among the biggest supporters of President Obama’s “cap and trade” proposals. GE is not doing this out of some sense of altruistic global citizenship, but because it operates a unit that would trade cap-and-trade credits. The company stands to reap billions in profits were Obama’s plan to pass.'
'Walmart stunned many by coming out in support of an employer health mandate. But it’s really not that surprising. Walmart actually spends more on employee health care than its competitor Target. Mandating that all companies provide health insurance will drive up Target’s costs, benefiting Walmart.'
Copyright Case May Have Profound Effect on Treaty Power | Ilya Shapiro | Cato Institute: Commentary
Copyright Case May Have Profound Effect on Treaty Power | Ilya Shapiro | Cato Institute: Commentary: 'as a matter of constitutional structure, history and logic, a treaty cannot increase Congress's legislative powers. Not only is the power to "make treaties" distinct from the power to execute treaties already made, but such an expansive interpretation of the treaty power would allow Congress and the executive to circumvent the Article V amendment process.'
'JUSTICE SCALIA: It seems to me Congress either had the power to do this under the Copyright Clause or it didn't. I don't think that powers that Congress does not have under the Constitution can be acquired by simply obtaining the agreement of the Senate, the President and Zimbabwe. I do not think a treaty can expand the powers of the Federal government. I mean, this is either okay under the copyright clause or it is not.'
'JUSTICE SCALIA: It seems to me Congress either had the power to do this under the Copyright Clause or it didn't. I don't think that powers that Congress does not have under the Constitution can be acquired by simply obtaining the agreement of the Senate, the President and Zimbabwe. I do not think a treaty can expand the powers of the Federal government. I mean, this is either okay under the copyright clause or it is not.'
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Obama's Odd Sense of Fairness | Richard W. Rahn | Cato Institute: Commentary
Obama's Odd Sense of Fairness | Richard W. Rahn | Cato Institute: Commentary: 'The actual tax rate Mitt Romney, Warren Buffet and most other wealthy people pay on dividends, when correctly calculated, is about 52 percent, as reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which includes the federal and state corporate-level-profits tax burden, plus federal and state taxes on dividends.'
'The federal government admits that hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars are wasted through fraud and mismanagement. Medicare fraud alone costs tens of billions of dollars each year. Nevertheless, somehow the president thinks it is more “fair” to enact job-destroying tax increases rather than insisting that officials in his own administration clean up the fraud and waste or lose their jobs, as would happen in any private company.'
'The federal government admits that hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars are wasted through fraud and mismanagement. Medicare fraud alone costs tens of billions of dollars each year. Nevertheless, somehow the president thinks it is more “fair” to enact job-destroying tax increases rather than insisting that officials in his own administration clean up the fraud and waste or lose their jobs, as would happen in any private company.'
$189,000 | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary
$189,000 | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary: 'measured as a percentage of GDP (the value of all goods and services produced in a country over a year), our budget deficit is roughly a quarter larger than France’s. In fact, among European countries, only Greece and Ireland have larger deficits this year than we do.'
'If one includes all the unfunded liabilities of pension and health-care systems, Greece’s total debt equals 875% of its GDP. France, the next-most insolvent country in Europe, owes 570% of GDP. The United States, however, now owes 885% of GDP, more than any other industrialized country.'
'If one includes all the unfunded liabilities of pension and health-care systems, Greece’s total debt equals 875% of its GDP. France, the next-most insolvent country in Europe, owes 570% of GDP. The United States, however, now owes 885% of GDP, more than any other industrialized country.'
Why There Is No Human Progress without Capitalism | Jim Powell | Cato Institute: Commentary
Why There Is No Human Progress without Capitalism | Jim Powell | Cato Institute: Commentary: 'For thousands of years, there was virtually no such thing as human progress. The great French historian Fernand Braudel observed, “Peasants represented immense numbers of people, the vast majority of human beings... constant poverty... For century upon century, clothing remained unchanged... the general rule was changelessness.” In Europe, peasant possessions were generally limited to little more than a shirt, a pair of pants, perhaps a simple jacket, a bench, a table and a straw-filled sack that served as a mattress. In India, there were hardly any chairs or tables to be found. There were few chairs in Islamic lands. Multitudes perished because of famines — France alone had hundreds of famines before 1800. Famine undermined the ability of people to resist common deadly diseases like typhoid fever, purple fever, whooping cough, sweating sickness, diphtheria, smallpox, influenza, syphilis and the plague.
Capitalism, as economic freedom is often called, has changed the world for the better by harnessing individual self-interest — the most reliable motivator there is. In markets, functioning without subsidies, special favors or bailouts, entrepreneurs have had powerful incentives to provide what consumers want.'
Capitalism, as economic freedom is often called, has changed the world for the better by harnessing individual self-interest — the most reliable motivator there is. In markets, functioning without subsidies, special favors or bailouts, entrepreneurs have had powerful incentives to provide what consumers want.'
Revealing Slain Victims' Rap Sheets Draws Fire | Fox News
Revealing Slain Victims' Rap Sheets Draws Fire | Fox News: 'As Mike Ainsworth walked his two sons to a school bus stop, he heard a woman being carjacked scream, and ran to help. The woman was not hurt, police said, but the Good Samaritan was shot to death by a suspect who fled.
When police gave out the details of Ainsworth's killing, they also announced he had been arrested for drugs and other non-violent crimes, keeping with a year-old policy in which criminal records for slain victims are released — sometimes before they've been publicly identified.
New Orleans police say revealing a victim's rap sheet lets the public know that much of the violence is happening between people with similar criminal backgrounds. Families of the slain victim's say the practice is insensitive, and others outraged with the policy say it has racial overtones and sends a message that the victims got what was coming to them.'
When police gave out the details of Ainsworth's killing, they also announced he had been arrested for drugs and other non-violent crimes, keeping with a year-old policy in which criminal records for slain victims are released — sometimes before they've been publicly identified.
New Orleans police say revealing a victim's rap sheet lets the public know that much of the violence is happening between people with similar criminal backgrounds. Families of the slain victim's say the practice is insensitive, and others outraged with the policy say it has racial overtones and sends a message that the victims got what was coming to them.'
A 'thermal battery' for villages in India | Cutting Edge - CNET News
A 'thermal battery' for villages in India | Cutting Edge - CNET News: The thermal battery is a large container that stores a specially designed liquid that doesn't freeze, even below the freezing point. People pour milk, which has just been milked from cows, onto a cylinder-shaped tank, which is cooled by the thermal battery's liquid. As the milk flows over the cylinder, it's rapidly chilled to an appropriate temperature for storing.
And when the grid is not available, the thermal battery can run for several hours on a car battery, and so it avoids dirty diesel generators. The first machines Promethean Power will deploy are roughly the size of a large refrigerator. To remove heat from the cooling liquid, it circulates through a traditional compressor loop, the same used in heat pumps, air conditioners, and refrigerators, White explained.
And when the grid is not available, the thermal battery can run for several hours on a car battery, and so it avoids dirty diesel generators. The first machines Promethean Power will deploy are roughly the size of a large refrigerator. To remove heat from the cooling liquid, it circulates through a traditional compressor loop, the same used in heat pumps, air conditioners, and refrigerators, White explained.
New Science Being Used To Fight Arson Convictions | Fox News
New Science Being Used To Fight Arson Convictions | Fox News: 'Research in recent decades has challenged long-held assumptions about how flames spread and the tell-tale signs they leave.
"Our scientific understandings have improved in recent years, and the effect of that has to be to say, 'We've got some innocent people who've been declared guilty based on misunderstandings,'" said John Hall, director of analysis and research for the National Fire Protection Association.
For example, decades ago, it was common for investigators to conclude an accelerant like gasoline was used if a fire burned particularly hot. In fact, the new arson science has found no such correlation, experts say. Another mistaken assumption: A V-shaped pattern on a wall of a burned building is proof of arson. All it shows is where a fire started.'
'For example, tests have found that pour-like patterns on the floor can occur because of radiant heat, even without accelerants, according to Beyler's report. Experiments have also found that melted plastics can create patterns that look like liquid spills, Beyler said.'
'But tests conducted in the 1990s showed that fires can hit the point of "flashover" — when all combustible surfaces ignite at once — in under four minutes with no accelerants.
Connections between a fire's speed and heat and the possibility of arson have "been discredited and shown to be much less significant than previously thought in the investigation of a fire," Florida-based fire scientist John Lentini, one of the country's leading independent fire analysts, said in a 2002 affidavit on Lee's behalf.
"Back in the day there were a lot more fires called arson that were actually accidents," Lentini said in an interview. "There was a lot of misinformation out there."'
Our best scientific knowledge may not always be accurate and we need to take into consideration the confidence that our best scientific knowledge has -- especially when it involves people lives!
"Our scientific understandings have improved in recent years, and the effect of that has to be to say, 'We've got some innocent people who've been declared guilty based on misunderstandings,'" said John Hall, director of analysis and research for the National Fire Protection Association.
For example, decades ago, it was common for investigators to conclude an accelerant like gasoline was used if a fire burned particularly hot. In fact, the new arson science has found no such correlation, experts say. Another mistaken assumption: A V-shaped pattern on a wall of a burned building is proof of arson. All it shows is where a fire started.'
'For example, tests have found that pour-like patterns on the floor can occur because of radiant heat, even without accelerants, according to Beyler's report. Experiments have also found that melted plastics can create patterns that look like liquid spills, Beyler said.'
'But tests conducted in the 1990s showed that fires can hit the point of "flashover" — when all combustible surfaces ignite at once — in under four minutes with no accelerants.
Connections between a fire's speed and heat and the possibility of arson have "been discredited and shown to be much less significant than previously thought in the investigation of a fire," Florida-based fire scientist John Lentini, one of the country's leading independent fire analysts, said in a 2002 affidavit on Lee's behalf.
"Back in the day there were a lot more fires called arson that were actually accidents," Lentini said in an interview. "There was a lot of misinformation out there."'
Our best scientific knowledge may not always be accurate and we need to take into consideration the confidence that our best scientific knowledge has -- especially when it involves people lives!
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