Iran's Failed Revolution | Doug Bandow | Cato Institute: Commentary

Iran's Failed Revolution | Doug Bandow | Cato Institute: Commentary: "For a quarter century Washington backed the shah's dictatorship. After years of repression, Islamic fundamentalists emerged stronger than liberal secularists, leading to the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Then the United States supported Iraq's Saddam Hussein after he invaded Iran. Later, President George W. Bush termed Iran a member of the 'Axis of Evil' even as his administration destroyed the Iraqi regime which had helped restrain Tehran's regional ambitions."

"This history continues to afflict America's relationship with Iranians. Persistent threats of military strikes and cheery jingles about bombing campaigns—which undoubtedly would have killed some of the demonstrators whose cause the U.S. government now champions—also taint Washington's call for democracy. So, too, the preelection admission of such neoconservatives as Max Boot and Daniel Pipes that they would prefer the reelection of Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Not all Iranians are likely to see Washington as a disinterested advocate of the best interests of the Iranian people."

"But for the U.S. government to be perceived as interfering—yet again—in Iran's affairs would retard rather than accelerate reform. Ahmadinejad has won on force but lost on legitimacy: Moussavi, fellow reform candidate Mehdi Karroubi, and former-President Mohammad Khatami continue to criticize the fraudulent result. The worst thing Washington could do is turn the issue into a conflict between the U.S. and Iranian governments instead of one between the Iranian government and its people. And if Moussavi unexpectedly triumphed, the United States would not want to be tied to him either. After all, he looks moderate only in comparison to Ahmadinejad."

"However, the nuclear issue is too important to leave unaddressed. Military strikes might only delay Iran's possible development of nuclear weapons. Moreover, such an attack would increase Tehran's incentive to develop an arsenal. U.S. intelligence does not believe that Iran has an active weapons program underway, though the mullahs may hope to create "turn-key" capability; military action likely would remove any doubt in the regime's mind about the desirability of possessing an atomic deterrent.

Moreover, war would destroy the democracy movement and solidify support for the regime. Worse, the violent, destabilizing consequences would ripple throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds, starting next door in Iraq, where one hundred thirty one thousand U.S. troops remain on station."