False Hopes | Ted Galen Carpenter | Cato Institute: Commentary

False Hopes | Ted Galen Carpenter | Cato Institute: Commentary: "Although maintaining the nonnuclear status quo on the Korean Peninsula may be a significant Chinese objective, it is not the most important one. Beijing's top priority is to preserve the North Korean state as a buffer between China and the U.S. sphere of influence in Northeast Asia.

As Pyongyang's economy languishes, China worries that the North Korean regime might implode, much as East German system did in 1989. Such a development would lead to the sudden emergence on China's border of a unified Korea allied to the United States, probably with the continued presence of U.S. military bases. North Korea's collapse would also likely create a massive flow of refugees into China.

The overriding objective of keeping North Korea as a viable country places a distinct limit on the amount of pressure that Beijing is willing to exert on Pyongyang."

"the Chinese government is wary of the precedent that a system of robust sanctions against either Iran or North Korea might set. Indeed, Chinese policy makers are hyper-vigilant about the possible implications of international precedents on nearly any issue.

That is why Beijing was unenthusiastic, for example, about calls for a UN Security Council endorsement for the NATO wars in the Balkans during the 1990s, or the subsequent decision to grant Kosovo independence from Serbia. Chinese officials were worried that any precedent set along those lines might someday be used regarding Taiwan — or even China's restless regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. Likewise, Beijing was nervous about the justifications used for the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, and the precedent that war could set.

In the case of economic sanctions, Beijing worries that critics of China's international behavior could someday use similar measures against Chinese firms."