Macro Confusion: Inflation, Commodities, and the Fed - Kel Kelly - Mises Daily

Macro Confusion: Inflation, Commodities, and the Fed - Kel Kelly - Mises Daily: "For Federal Reserve officials to claim that the large amount of new money they have created in the last few years is not contributing to pushing up the price of commodities markets, and to (implicitly) assume that all of that money has instead flowed everywhere else in the economy except to commodities markets is indefensible."

"While lower interest rates indeed cause businesses to borrow and invest more, what is usually being borrowed, invested, and spent is new money, not previously existing money. Interest rates are lowered by increasing the money supply. It is this new and additional money that causes increased corporate revenues and profits, GDP, and asset prices. It is the new and additional money that is the sole cause of rising prices of any kind, anywhere (given that most other prices are rising simultaneously)."

"The value of the dollar (of each dollar existing) falls because more dollars are created."

"Thus, they are simultaneously saying that their policies are not driving commodities prices higher, but that if they undo their policies, commodities prices will fall. The fact is that it is their money pumping that is driving both GDP growth and commodities prices — but not the real economy."

"Suppose that today it costs a 40-year-old $45,000 a year to live. With inflation of 3 percent per year, it will cost her over $94,000 a year to live when she retires at age 65. Thus, she must save heavily in order to have an amount of savings large enough to live off each year, and still have it grow for future years of retirement (say, into her 90s, given current life expectancies) at a rate faster than she is drawing down on it. A very high growth rate is needed, especially considering that she will be taxed on all her gains.


But consider an alternative scenario in which no money was printed, and that the rate of production increased at 3 percent per year. In this case, upon retirement, the living that used to cost the woman $45,000 would now cost just over $21,000. And by age 95, it would cost less than $8,500 per year — in real terms, and with nothing taxed! In that case, not only would workers not have to race against the inflation clock before and during retirement, but whatever savings they had would buy more each year.

So indeed, in today's world, because of the government's printing of money, even if wages keep up with inflation, people have to save more and consume less than they would otherwise, and once wages aren't earned anymore, most people usually begin falling behind immediately. Clearly, society would be in better shape with greater savings, a stronger economy, and with prices falling in both nominal and real terms on a monthly basis, as would be the case absent money creation and rising prices."