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Beneficiaries of Trade: You and Me | Daniel Griswold | Cato Institute: Commentary: "So, when the BEA reports that imports 'subtracted' two percentage points from economic growth in the past quarter, that doesn't mean that GDP would have grown that much faster without those pesky imports. It only means that other components — private and government expenditures, investment, and exports — were overstated by that amount. The subtraction reduces the overstatement, not real gross domestic product."
"Civilian employment expanded at a healthy 1.4% a year during periods of rising trade deficits, while job growth was virtually zero during stretches when the deficit was shrinking. The jobless rate declined an average of 0.4 percentage points per year when the trade gap was on an upward trend, and jumped a painful one point per year when the deficit was trending down. Apparently, the only thing worse for the U.S. economy than a rising trade deficit is a falling one."
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Ode to the Warehouse - Jeffrey A. Tucker - Mises Daily
Ode to the Warehouse - Jeffrey A. Tucker - Mises Daily: "every item stored in a warehouse is seemingly idle in an economic sense, not currently employed in consumption or production. Everything is held here on the presumption that at some point someone will purchase it. This cannot be known for sure. It is a speculation, an entrepreneurial judgment that could be right or wrong.
If there were perfect information about the future, the warehouse wouldn't exist at all. All goods would be manufactured on a need-be basis only, with no storage needed or necessary. Despite its stillness and orderly calm, then, the warehouse embodies a wild leap into the unknown — a physical monument to the human capacity to imagine a future we cannot see."
If there were perfect information about the future, the warehouse wouldn't exist at all. All goods would be manufactured on a need-be basis only, with no storage needed or necessary. Despite its stillness and orderly calm, then, the warehouse embodies a wild leap into the unknown — a physical monument to the human capacity to imagine a future we cannot see."
Why U.S. Leaders Deceive Their Own People | Ted Galen Carpenter | Cato Institute: Commentary
Why U.S. Leaders Deceive Their Own People | Ted Galen Carpenter | Cato Institute: Commentary: "officials in democratic political systems are more likely to deceive their own people — even engaging in outright lies — than officials in autocratic systems. His reasoning on that point is solid, and he provides compelling evidence to support his case. Mearsheimer's thesis is that democratic leaders are much more dependent than autocrats on public support for foreign policy initiatives, especially when an initiative includes going to war. If the available evidence is weak that a major security threat exists, but political leaders believe that taking military action is in the national interest, a powerful incentive exists to inflate the threat to gain badly needed public support."
"political leaders are much more inclined to lie involving wars of choice rather than wars of necessity"
"political leaders are much more inclined to lie involving wars of choice rather than wars of necessity"
Gettysburg: Saving the Union at What Cost? | Doug Bandow | Cato Institute: Commentary
Gettysburg: Saving the Union at What Cost? | Doug Bandow | Cato Institute: Commentary: "Today U.S. officials criticize, and sometimes even bomb, other governments which forcibly prevent secession. The majority of Americans have come to believe that political arrangements should be voluntary. Thus, the fact that some people want to break away is no cause for war.
That was not the view in 1861, however."
That was not the view in 1861, however."
Defaults, Debt Ceilings and the 14th Amendment | Robert A. Levy | Cato Institute: Commentary
Defaults, Debt Ceilings and the 14th Amendment | Robert A. Levy | Cato Institute: Commentary: "Congress and the president would be compelled either to reduce spending, raise taxes, sell the Treasury's mortgage-backed securities ($100 billion) or gold ($389 billion), delay principal and interest on debt held by the Federal Reserve (16% of total debt) or simply revalue the Treasury's gold certificates at the current market price (a gain of $378 billion) by amending the Par Value Modification Act. The choices to avoid default are numerous, notwithstanding a debt ceiling."
Oregon's Verdict on Medicaid | Michael F. Cannon | Cato Institute: Commentary
Oregon's Verdict on Medicaid | Michael F. Cannon | Cato Institute: Commentary: "Americans may be surprised to learn that little solid evidence exists to support the claim that expanding health insurance will improve the health and financial security of the uninsure"
"Medicaid coverage led to higher medical consumption"
"medical consumption was no higher in the first half of the year, suggesting there was no 'pent-up demand' for medical care"
"no discernible difference in ER use between Medicaid enrollees and the control group."
"The likelihood of having out-of-pocket medical expenses fell from 56 percent to 36 percent, while the likelihood of having to borrow money or skip paying other bills to pay for medical care fell from 36 percent to 21 percent. Enrollees' likelihood of having any type of unpaid bill sent to collection fell from 50 percent to 45 percent."
"no evidence that Medicare (which covers a much older and sicker population) saved any lives even ten years after its introduction."
"the likelihood of screening positive for depression fell from 33 percent to 25 percent, and the share reporting their health to be good or better rose from 55 percent to 68 percent. However, two-thirds of the improvement in self-reported health occurred almost immediately after enrollment, before any increases in medical consumption."
"despite being eligible for Medicaid, 13 percent of the control group had private health insurance — suggesting that on some dimension, Medicaid's eligibility rules are already too broad."
"For a century, the Left has advocated universal health insurance despite not knowing what benefits it might bring. In 2010, Congress and President Obama vastly expanded Medicaid without waiting for the results of the one study that might tell them what taxpayers would get in return for their half a trillion dollars. As the law's supporters seek to cajole doctors into practicing evidence-based medicine, it is no small irony that they themselves dove head-first into evidence-free policymaking."
"Medicaid coverage led to higher medical consumption"
"medical consumption was no higher in the first half of the year, suggesting there was no 'pent-up demand' for medical care"
"no discernible difference in ER use between Medicaid enrollees and the control group."
"The likelihood of having out-of-pocket medical expenses fell from 56 percent to 36 percent, while the likelihood of having to borrow money or skip paying other bills to pay for medical care fell from 36 percent to 21 percent. Enrollees' likelihood of having any type of unpaid bill sent to collection fell from 50 percent to 45 percent."
"no evidence that Medicare (which covers a much older and sicker population) saved any lives even ten years after its introduction."
"the likelihood of screening positive for depression fell from 33 percent to 25 percent, and the share reporting their health to be good or better rose from 55 percent to 68 percent. However, two-thirds of the improvement in self-reported health occurred almost immediately after enrollment, before any increases in medical consumption."
"despite being eligible for Medicaid, 13 percent of the control group had private health insurance — suggesting that on some dimension, Medicaid's eligibility rules are already too broad."
"For a century, the Left has advocated universal health insurance despite not knowing what benefits it might bring. In 2010, Congress and President Obama vastly expanded Medicaid without waiting for the results of the one study that might tell them what taxpayers would get in return for their half a trillion dollars. As the law's supporters seek to cajole doctors into practicing evidence-based medicine, it is no small irony that they themselves dove head-first into evidence-free policymaking."
Monday, August 01, 2011
How Pakistani minutemen are fighting the Taliban 'false Muslims' - CSMonitor.com
How Pakistani minutemen are fighting the Taliban 'false Muslims' - CSMonitor.com: "But three years ago Shahabuddin Khan, a farmer and the leader of the Salarzai tribe, called his men to arms to counter the Taliban, a group he calls “false Muslims.” That show of strength, together with the militants’ partiality for kidnapping and looting, helped shift public opinion here.
“Earlier people were fooled when they [the Taliban] played the Islam card. They carried out suicide attacks in our funeral prayers. They didn’t leave mosques alone. They can’t be Muslims, and the people now realize this,” he says."
“Earlier people were fooled when they [the Taliban] played the Islam card. They carried out suicide attacks in our funeral prayers. They didn’t leave mosques alone. They can’t be Muslims, and the people now realize this,” he says."
Friday, July 29, 2011
U.S. Default Would Not Be Unprecedented | The Freeman | Ideas On Liberty
U.S. Default Would Not Be Unprecedented | The Freeman | Ideas On Liberty: "During its 235 years as a sovereign entity the United States has defaulted on three separate occasions … and has also intentionally liquidated debt via inflation."
"During the 1933 banking holiday declared by President Franklin Roosevelt immediately after his March 4 inauguration, the federal government refused requests for interest payments in gold, remitting only currency instead. Congress later ratified this action by formally invalidating gold clauses….
Meanwhile, as reported in The Economist (2011, June 23), the US Treasury failed to redeem $122 million of Treasury bills on time after another debt ceiling debate in 1979. This episode was purely a technical default, arising from systems issues…."
"During the 1933 banking holiday declared by President Franklin Roosevelt immediately after his March 4 inauguration, the federal government refused requests for interest payments in gold, remitting only currency instead. Congress later ratified this action by formally invalidating gold clauses….
Meanwhile, as reported in The Economist (2011, June 23), the US Treasury failed to redeem $122 million of Treasury bills on time after another debt ceiling debate in 1979. This episode was purely a technical default, arising from systems issues…."
How to Get Real Spending Cuts | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary
How to Get Real Spending Cuts | Michael D. Tanner | Cato Institute: Commentary: "Budget history is flush with promises of cuts some day in the future — but some day never actually comes. This is especially true when budget savings are anticipated not from actually eliminating programs, but from making government 'more efficient.'"
"Republicans should not get hung up on seeking any particular amount of spending cuts. The dollar amount matters far less than getting the structural and institutional changes that will actually bring down the size, cost, and intrusiveness of government in the future.
Republicans should push hard for a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution — and not one that simply requires a balanced budget, but one that includes meaningful spending limitations. If they can't get the two-thirds vote that such an amendment would require, they should at least insist on a statutory spending cap. Republicans should also insist on fundamental structural changes to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
In the end, this is not really a debate about budgeting or the size of the national debt. It is a debate about whether we will have a limited constitutional government or a European-style social democracy. Winning that debate will not be a question of whether there is an agreement to cut $2 trillion over ten years rather than $1.5 trillion. If Republicans get an extra $500 billion in cuts on paper, but leave the structures of big government in place, they will find out down the road that nothing has really changed."
"Republicans should not get hung up on seeking any particular amount of spending cuts. The dollar amount matters far less than getting the structural and institutional changes that will actually bring down the size, cost, and intrusiveness of government in the future.
Republicans should push hard for a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution — and not one that simply requires a balanced budget, but one that includes meaningful spending limitations. If they can't get the two-thirds vote that such an amendment would require, they should at least insist on a statutory spending cap. Republicans should also insist on fundamental structural changes to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
In the end, this is not really a debate about budgeting or the size of the national debt. It is a debate about whether we will have a limited constitutional government or a European-style social democracy. Winning that debate will not be a question of whether there is an agreement to cut $2 trillion over ten years rather than $1.5 trillion. If Republicans get an extra $500 billion in cuts on paper, but leave the structures of big government in place, they will find out down the road that nothing has really changed."
RealClearMarkets - The Truth About the Debt-Ceiling Fight
RealClearMarkets - The Truth About the Debt-Ceiling Fight: "We have been told that failing to raise the debt ceiling would precipitate a 40% cut in government spending. Since most of what the government does is illegitimate, that would not be unreasonable at all, actually, but even on the Tea Party critics' own terms, the numbers tell a different story. If the debt ceiling is not raised, it would represent a 16% decrease from Bush's 2009 budget request of $3.11 trillion, decried by both the right and the left as overspending.
It would represent a 26% cut in government spending from Obama's 2010 budget request"
"To go back to Bush-level spending would require $0.70 trillion of borrowing until the end of 2012, around which time, revenues would begin exceeding government expenditures."
It would represent a 26% cut in government spending from Obama's 2010 budget request"
"To go back to Bush-level spending would require $0.70 trillion of borrowing until the end of 2012, around which time, revenues would begin exceeding government expenditures."
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